Dun & Bradstreet Dynamic Risk Scoring

DUN & BRADSTREET MARKETING DATABASE AND DYNAMIC RISK SCORING PROFILE

Founded on ASIC data, enhanced via a team of data analysts in Melbourne as well as D&Bs extensive Credit Risk reporting business, D&Bs National Database is the most comprehensive database of Business Contacts in Australia. This file contains a combination of Corporate CEOs and specific Key Executive Decision Makers as well as Head Offices and Major Branch Offices and has a verification program with an accuracy level second to none, and now, we can introduce to your Marketing Department, Cost Effective “Propensity to Pay” Information.

Currently there are 287,365 Companies fully personalised to the “CEO” contact either the Chief Executive Officer, Owner or Managing Director or nominated Senior Executive, as follows:

Size ACT NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA TOTAL
N/A 275 8,385 229 3,942 1,657 684 3,947 3,809 22,928
1+ 4,513 92,069 2,568 51,082 19,354 6,536 80,028 31,215 287,365
5+ 2,200 42,744 1,263 22,449 9,206 2,866 35,085 13,203 129,016
10+ 1,291 25,299 707 13,087 5,444 1,609 20,710 7,702 75,849
20+ 705 14,143 378 7,090 3,054 831 11,496 4,213 41,910
30+ 495 9,897 266 4,823 2,133 563 8,077 2,930 29,184
40+ 385 7,786 200 3,645 1,639 422 6,337 2,226 22,640
50+ 311 6,583 162 2,972 1,323 356 5,312 1,828 18,847
60+ 262 5,531 137 2,438 1,089 283 4,392 1,492 15,624
70+ 228 4,860 118 2,131 928 247 3,833 1,272 13,617
80+ 206 4,448 103 1,906 825 215 3,453 1,114 12,270
90+ 191 4,065 85 1,701 727 186 3,140 1,006 11,101
100+ 180 3,857 83 1,621 687 176 2,955 947 10,506
120+ 149 3,154 57 1,269 548 146 2,416 772 8,511
150+ 122 2,739 47 1,058 469 130 2,058 646 7,269
200+ 95 2,247 34 825 365 93 1,635 532 5,826
500+ 44 1,111 10 321 153 33 774 250 2,696
1000+ 24 685 5 172 90 19 461 155 1,611
5000+ 3 180 0 33 14 7 128 26 394

TOP EXECUTIVE DECISION MAKERS

  Total ACT NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA
Companies 33992 471 12471 203 4826 2081 625 10063 3252
Directors 79063 1143 30169 418 10508 4670 1376 22716 8063
Chief Accountant 2268 34 845 13 367 155 47 542 265
Purchasing/Supply Managers 3591 38 1232 18 500 247 61 1077 418
Financial Controller 7493 103 2933 38 999 457 150 2142 671
Distribution Managers 222 2 87 0 32 15 8 63 15
EDP/IT/MIS Managers 3614 61 1528 13 456 143 56 1034 323
Company Secretary 13721 173 5379 56 1882 818 180 3841 1392
Fleet Manager 497 6 155 4 76 27 19 143 67
Human Resource Managers 3717 64 1476 15 460 192 72 1104 334
Training Managers 613 15 208 3 90 35 18 157 87
Call Centre Managers 349 1 154 0 36 17 7 109 25
Marketing Managers 6198 101 2508 24 806 298 91 1824 546
Lawyers/Solicitors 197 5 109 1 10 9 2 51 10
Chief Executive 35897 498 13014 194 5183 2240 677 10714 3377
Management Level 2 10489 244 4032 68 1433 669 198 2894 951
Admin/Office Managers 7019 114 2413 58 1213 637 122 1829 633
Production/Works/Technical Mngs 2985 40 1043 21 442 267 58 803 311
Occupational Health Officers 812 14 255 5 147 65 22 204 100
Mining Personnel 139 0 29 1 29 4 2 19 55
Sales Director or Manager 8460 96 3238 45 1148 590 128 2506 709
Quality Manager 258 1 87 0 24 28 2 83 33
Export Manager 532 0 154 0 73 38 13 182 72
Secretary to CEO 873 20 300 2 120 59 21 223 128

 

SELECTIONS

Available by postcode, industry group, male/female, position, employees, turnover, import/export, Parent Coy, year commenced, Bank, and Dynamic Risk Score (see page 3, 4 & 5).

INVESTMENT (INCL GST)

Mailing data (Contact Name, Position, Company Name & Address) available for $290 per 1,000 records;

Telemarketing data (Contact Name, Position, Company Name, Phone, Business Activity & SIC) available for $407 per 1000;

Mailing & Telemarketing or Fax data is available for $594 per 1,000 records;

Partial data (Mailing, Telemarketing, Fax data (on approx 40% of data), Turnover (on approx 30% of data), Employee size, Business Activity & SIC) is available for $1127 per 1000 records;

Full data at $1210 per 1000 records for all of the above plus Year Business Started, Importer/Exporter, Parent Company & Bank.

Dynamic Risk Scoring varies according to data quantity, but there is a minimum of $2200. We would confirm pricing options first.

For a small fee, this data can be provided on a multi-use basis, which means you can retain and re-use the database. The standard computer set up fee is $275 per order, min. order value $895.

 

 

D&Bs DYNAMIC RISK SCORE UNIQUE!

 

1. OVERVIEW

D&Bs Dynamic Risk Score (DRS) predicts the likelihood that a company will experience Financial Distress within the next 12 months based on the information in D&Bs files.

The Dynamic Risk Score has been available in Australia for over 5 years through a Credit Report, often at a much higher price. To maintain global consistency and incorporate the latest statistical methods and procedures, a new model has been developed.

The Dynamic Risk Score consists of two modules designed for smaller companies (9 or fewer employees), the other for larger companies (with 10 or more employees). Together this scoring system enhances the predictive power.

The Dynamic Risk Score utilises the combined power of D&Bs vast information database of Payment, Public Filing, Demographic, Financial and other information, when and if available. We can append or select data before its provided to you or alternatively, match your existing database against this rating.

2. AVAILABILITY OF THE DYNAMIC RISK SCORE

(DRS) Dynamic Risk Score is now available on over 800,000 active Australian-based companies. We are able to data append marketing information onto your client database too, to facilitate a DRS match with your database. Bear in mind however, Dynamic Risk Scores are not available on companies that fall into any of the following categories:

No SIC code

Branch of Foreign Companies

Inoperative

Deregistered

Strike-Off Action in Progress; with the exception of

Businesses in industries that do not lend themselves to scoring through this type of model. These industries include Government Departments, the Insurance industry, Law and Accounting firms.

3. WHAT THE DYNAMIC RISK SCORE PREDICTS

The DRS is based upon the observed characteristics of businesses in D&B’s database and the relationship these characteristics have to the probability of a company experiencing financial distress over the next 12 months. D&B defines Financial Distress as:

Change of Control (eg Receiver Manager or Administrator appointed)

Forced Business Closure (eg Strike-Off Action, Insolvency or Liquidation).

 

4. DYNAMIC RISK SCORES MEASUREMENT OF RISK

 

A “Score” of 1,001 1,560, where a 1,001 represents businesses that have the highest probability of financial distress, and a 1,560 which represents businesses with the lowest probability of financial distress. This score provides a direct relationship between the score and the level of risk. The marginal odds of being good doubles for each 40 point increase. For example, a score of 1,200, on a marginal basis, represents twice the risk of financial distress as a score of 1,240.

This score enables a customer to utilise more granular cut-offs to drive their automated decision-making process.

Table 1: Score range and observed financial distress rates in the distress probability field.

 

5. HOW THE DYNAMIC RISK SCORE IS CALCULATED

The New Dynamic Risk System was developed using state of the art statistical and modeling techniques to select and weight the data elements that are most predictive of financial distress. The resulting model contains mathematical equations that consist of a series of variables and coefficients (weights) that have been calculated for each variable.

The selection of the variables and the calculation of corresponding weights for each model are the result of extensive data analysis. In developing the new model, D&B evaluated a combination of “good” and “bad” performing businesses in the D&B database. Such as:

Demographic Information

Factor Impact on Model
Court Actions and Judgments The presence, as well as the volume, of court actions or judgments. These are typically unforeseen circumstances that may negatively impact a business. The absence of public filings is considered a positive factor.
Total Number of Employees In general, the larger the number of employees, the greater the stability of the firm, and hence the lower the risk.

Information unique to D&B

Trade Information Services payment data

D&B Collections data

Financial Information

Factor Impact on Model
Current Ratio Current ratio demonstrates the working capital relationship of current assets to cover current liabilities. The greater the current ratio, the lower the risk.

Non-financial information

Demographics (eg, size, age, industry)

Public records (eg, court actions, registered charges)

Payment Information

Factor Impact on Model
Percent Satisfactory Payment Experiences The higher the percentage of satisfactory payment experiences the lower the risk.
Percent of Payment Experiences
31-60 Days Past Due
The higher the percentage of payment experiences of the firm that fall within the 31-60 days past due category, the higher the risk.
Percent of Payment Experiences 61-90 Days Past Due The higher the percentage of payment experiences of the firm that fall within the 61-90 days past due category, the higher the risk.

Financial information

Profitability

Net Worth

Financial ratios (eg, liquidity, efficiency)

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